Escalating Gulf Tensions
Oil prices surpassed $100 a barrel as Iranian attacks on ships in the Persian Gulf intensified, overshadowing efforts by the U.S. and its allies to ease energy prices. At least six ships have been struck by projectiles in the Persian Gulf or the Strait of Hormuz since early Wednesday, according to U.K. Maritime Trade Operations. Eurasia Group said Wednesday that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which typically handles about 20% of the world's oil supply, "remains near zero because of threats by Iran to attack any passing vessels." Nations are scrambling to get barrels moving.
Attacks on Vessels and Infrastructure
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed responsibility for striking the "Safesea Vishnu," a U.S.-owned tanker sailing under a Marshall Islands flag, stating the vessel "disobeyed and ignored the warnings" of the Iranian navy. The IRGC said it was policing the gulf and strait to ensure vessels "act in accordance with the laws and regulations" that Iran has put in place "in order to remain safe from being hit by stray projectiles." A second tanker, the Maltese-flagged "Zefyros," was also hit by projectiles, resulting in fires onboard both ships. Dubai reported a drone attack and fallen debris in two locations, while Kuwait's airport sustained damage in another strike.
International Response and Oil Reserve Release
The International Energy Agency agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles, with the U.S. contributing 172 million barrels, to combat the spike in global crude prices. IEA executive director Fatih Birol said the goal is to keep the supply of oil flowing as the conflict disrupts shipping routes and energy infrastructure. President Trump said the reserve release would push prices down.
Global Economic Impact
Brent crude, the international standard, was trading 5.3% higher at about $97 per barrel Thursday after hitting $100.50 on Wednesday. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned the world to expect oil to reach $200 per barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
Regional Conflict and Casualties
Hezbollah launched its biggest rocket attack against Israel since the start of the war, with Israel responding with strikes on what it said was Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut's southern suburbs. Israeli strikes on Iran have continued, with Iran firing missiles at Israel intermittently. Iranian and Lebanese health officials and Israeli authorities have reported more than 1,200 people killed in Iran, 634 in Lebanon, and 12 in Israel. Seven U.S. soldiers have died and eight were seriously injured.
Potential Threats to the U.S.
The FBI warned police departments in California that Iran wants to retaliate for American attacks by launching offensive drones against the West Coast, according to an alert. The alert stated that Iran allegedly aspired to conduct a surprise attack using unmanned aerial vehicles from an unidentified vessel off the coast of the United States, specifically against unspecified targets in California.
Diplomatic Efforts and Reactions
The UN Security Council adopted a resolution condemning Iran for recent attacks across the Persian Gulf region, calling them a "breach of international law" and "a serious threat to international peace and security." Thailand denounced the attack on a Thai-flagged vessel in the Strait of Hormuz and demanded that Iran issue an apology.
With approximately 20,000 seafarers currently working on ships in the Persian Gulf, maritime expert Capt. Kees Buckens notes that families are separated as "they're sitting in a war zone suddenly, and they can be shot at."
