The first real test of 2026
Polls open Tuesday in Texas and North Carolina for the first primary elections of the 2026 midterm cycle. Voters in both states will choose nominees for U.S. Senate seats that could determine which party controls the chamber come November. Arkansas also holds primaries Tuesday. National attention has focused on competitive Senate contests in Texas and North Carolina.
These elections matter because they will determine the candidates who will compete in the general election. A candidate who wins Tuesday will face the other party's nominee in November with the Senate majority hanging in the balance. Neither state is safely controlled by one party anymore, which is why both sides have poured significant money into these primaries.
Texas Republicans fight over the future of the party
The Republican primary for Texas Senate features incumbent Senator John Cornyn, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, and U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt. Cornyn faces a competitive primary challenge from challengers who are positioning themselves as stronger supporters of Trump's immigration and election-fraud narratives than Cornyn.
The race has become expensive and competitive. Cornyn said in a Feb. 27 campaign ad that nominating Paxton "puts our Senate majority at risk in November," according to the Texas Tribune. The winner will face Democrat U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett and state Senator Carol Talarico in a competitive Democratic primary.
After a March 1 shooting in downtown Austin left three dead, candidates quickly shifted their messaging to immigration and gun control. Several Republican candidates called for tougher border security, while Democratic contenders urged expanded background checks. The attack injected new urgency into messaging just days before voters cast ballots.
North Carolina Democrats see a path to flip a Republican seat
The marquee race in North Carolina is the open Senate seat left vacant by retiring Republican Senator Thom Tillis. Democrats are optimistic about their chances to win this seat, which would narrow Republicans' already-slim advantage in the chamber.
Former two-term Governor Roy Cooper leads the Democratic primary field and is considered by many party members to be the strongest general election candidate. He is ahead in recent polling against other Democratic candidates who have never held elected office.
On the Republican side, a Trump-endorsed candidate leads the field, though he has less experience than other candidates. Tillis, despite his conservative voting record, has opposed the Trump administration on healthcare, defense, and the Epstein file disclosures. This opposition has created an opening for a Trump-aligned challenger.
North Carolina voters will narrow down the field Tuesday in what could become one of the most competitive Senate races in the country come November. These two seats are among a handful that could decide Senate control in November.
What happens next
Results will be reported by news outlets Tuesday evening as polls close. The winners will emerge as their parties' official nominees for the November general election, when these races will contribute to determining whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate for the next two years.
