Gas Prices Set to Jump 25 to 65 Cents Per Gallon This Spring

Your fill-up is about to cost noticeably more. Gas prices will likely climb in the coming weeks, driven by a combination of forces that will hit your wallet harder than the headlines suggest. The Iran tensions grabbing today's news are only part of the story. The real pressure comes from the seasonal machinery that kicks in every spring, and it's already in motion.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, says prices typically jump between 25 cents and 65 cents per gallon between late February and May. That means a 15-gallon fill-up could cost $3.75 to $9.75 more than it does today. For someone filling up twice a week, that adds up to $30 to $130 extra per month by late spring.

The seasonal shift starts now. Refineries across the country are switching from winter-blend gasoline to summer-blend fuel, which resists evaporation to meet federal air pollution standards. The problem: summer blend costs more to produce and takes longer to make. Aixa Diaz, an AAA spokesperson, explains that the extra processing required to create fuel that won't vaporize in warm weather drives up wholesale costs, which then filter down to the pump.

This switch typically begins at the end of February or early March, right as spring break season kicks off and more people hit the road. The timing is no accident. Refineries plan their production schedules around predictable seasonal demand.

Oil prices spiked this week as traders absorbed the risk that a U.S. strike on Iran could disrupt global supply. De Haan says this geopolitical uncertainty is currently adding a few cents per gallon to wholesale costs. But here's the catch: winter-blend gasoline inventories are well above average right now, which is temporarily cushioning the impact. Once refineries drain those stockpiles and shift to summer blend, that buffer disappears.

Fuel analyst Tom Kloza flags specific refinery issues that will compound the pressure. Recent maintenance at an HF Sinclair refinery in the Pacific Northwest and problems at refineries in the Great Plains region are already affecting wholesale costs. Combined with typical pre-summer maintenance work that reduces refinery output, these localized supply crunches will add upward pressure on prices nationwide.

You're starting from a lower baseline than usual. Aixa Diaz notes that current gas prices are the cheapest for this time of year since 2021. Even as prices rise through spring, you're not climbing from the elevated levels of previous years. That doesn't mean the jump won't sting, but it means you're not returning to the worst prices Americans have seen recently.

What happens next depends partly on Iran. A limited strike, a wider conflict, or no military action at all will each send oil markets in different directions. Until then, expect your next fill-up to cost more than your last one.